I'd bet 99% this guy will be in the starting five. We got a mature pass oriented guard who can shoot.
I don't think he has the speed we've seen in Bibbins or Slater, not the ability to drive like Booker. He has a 'stocky' body type so believe he'll have the strength to be a solid upper tier Big West guard. His assist to turnover, and 3 pt shooting are very solid, even if not 'spectactular. Tsahonis and Hunter (and Murray due to injury, & AT due to unproven) simply were not guys handling the ball that could pose a reliable 3 pt threat as our main ball handlers. the Messiah fills both those roles of solid ball handler AND a guy that can nail 3s if needed AND a guy that can integrate and guard will into the defense.
interesting statistic.
in 2022, won the Big West, with the Massey Power rating of 175
in 2023, finished 7th, with the exact same Massey Power rating of 175
what was different? 2022 had much better guard play with the trio of Slater/Cobb/Murray. 2023 had much better inside play with Traores & Componay. per Massey, both teams were equally capable
the Big West was much better last year. Pepper from Davis, Fullerton re-loaded, IRvine had very good guard play, UCSB had a senior team plus AJ
for 2024. right now only UCSB looks to re-load well, plus brings back AJ, the best player in the league
Fullerton, Riverside, IRvine in particular lost so many key players. granted always some surprises year to year, just hard right now to see which teams it will happen for
right now, on the proverbial paper, Beach seems a likelly contender. A lot hinges on getting more 2022 type ball movement, and some improvement in 3 point shooting efficency. Can't expect to get back to 2022 Assist to Turnover ratio. Also can't expect to beat teams in modern era by hitting 2s while others hit 3s, don't have to hit more 3s, but hard to win games when you get outscored by 15+ in 3s game after game.
main thing to see is how quick the defense can coalesce (I think fast given the defensive minded disruptive guys in our core of AT, AJ, JOnes, & Stroud.
offense I suspect will go thru fits and streaks until Messiah can get comfortable, and we find out who can shoot 3s in rhythm, nad Tshonis finds a role in this offense.
key addition by far is Messiah Thompson, a proven D1 player, even if he was with lower level D1 teams, but at least we know he can penetrate, shoot, and pass which we didn't have that player last year.
167