Well researched summary. Let me throw out an intangible consideration should Long Beach advance to the BWCT final but lose to HI.
How hard would the committee evaluate and make Long Beach's resume fit as an at large given that 2,500-3,000 fans would travel to Pauley? In comparison to 100-200 attendees from a PSU, BSU?
Here is the breakdown:
basically teh resume is good, but absolutely need to win tonight, and tommorrow for good measure
top 10, top 15, top 15 road the reason for both 10/15 is for added context of quality. teh MIVA has a huge huge huge benefit from RPI (the usual suspect of bias against western teams), which could help Ball State, & Ft wayne could break in to the top 15
Team: & Top 10 RPI, Top 15 RPI, Top 15 road, Top 15 non-conf ), SOS
UCLA: 4-2, 9-2, 2-1, 3-2 ,12 (note the 2 stanford losses don't show up)
LBS: 8-2, 10-2, 3-1, 6-2 ,7 (note the UCI loss doesn't show up)
PSU: 1-3, 5-3, 3-3, 3-3 , 16 (note the Princeton loss doesn't show up, Princeton could move into the top 15 if they win the EIVA & NJIT could also fall out)
BSU: 5-2, 10-2, 4-1, 3-0 22 (Note Ball State has road wins over NJIT & PRinceton, so they are very happy at the outcome of the EIVA semis other than it keeps PSU in the at-large mix, the issue with Ball State is the record is based mostly on the MIVA wins)
USC: 4-3, 6-4, 2-2 , 4-1 , 6 (very dependent on 3 SB wins, so if Haw beats SB, they are not in)
Haw: 9-4, 9-2, 0-4, 7-2, 21 (very dependent on 3 LMI RPI inflated wins, currently at #10 in RPI, so will be interesting how the committee rates those 3 LMI wins, Hawaii's schedule turned out to be very good RPI wise with the scheduling of the MIVA teams and LMI instead of MPSF teams, how the committee weights the difference between home / away records will be interesting, especially as they host the BWCT )
based on this
#1) LBS (record of 6-0 vs. Hawaii, NJIT, OSU, Loy, Lew)
#2) Ball State (record of 8-2 vs those same teams)
#3) UCLA (they host the tournament, so they are getting in regardless, the committee will find the data it needs to put them in, even though BSU & LB might end up with a better resume)
#4-6) too close to call
it's just hard to look at PSU's record in depth and see how they make the case over a number of others - making their case on the basis of one single win, unfortunately that was LB, isn't a good thing - if it comes down to PSU or Hawaii, it's basically their win over LB & better road record than Hawaii if they get in. If BSU loses in the MIVA finals, PSU should be out. just not the SOS & quality wins to make the case for them. Depends on what the commmittee weighs, they can make PSU look really good unless they look at the SOS and the top 10/15 record in depth. but who knows, committee members will have bias, and 3 of the 5 committee members are from east of the rockies
both would have a solid case for an at large bid. I still think LBSU would get in as an at large BUT things are a lot more interesting now.