my order would be:
2) Long Beach State
3) Ball State
5) Penn State
USC has a really really good resume, Penn State's has all sorts of holes. They haven't played a top 10 team in Februaray, March, & APril - they are going to be a nightmare for the committee should they lose in their EIVA tourny. Their record vs. top 15 RPI teams is so-so compared to others. but.. a lot of RPI metrics are good for them
agree, but even then, it's not a done deal
not concerned about Ball State, we beat both Lewis & Loyola on the road, we beat Hawaii twice (after they got guys back on their roster), so the committee would have a really difficult time to put Ball State above us, plus Ball State is not a team that is gonna translate to fans/viewers (I know it's not a criteria, but anybody that doesn't think the commitees don't recognize that is naive)
it's mainly cause Penn State beat us (at our court no less) and has a much better road record. Those are two of the criteria.
Now, do we have much more quality wins, better SOS, etc. Yes. I don't think a committee should put PSU in over us if one looks at the records extensively, but.......they also have to use RPI only.
I suspect we'll drop out of the #1 RPI spot this week, because of 2 games vs. a horrible W-L record Northridge, maybe not, we'll see.
yep, hopefully PSU wins their tourney, I personally think if either UCLA or PSU wins their tourney we are in, but again, nothing ever shocks me with the NCAA, could they put Ball State in over us? I just can't see it because it'll mean they'll likely have lost to Lewis or Loyola again, which is one more dagger for them.
pulling out that 5 setter vs. Northridge was huge, really really huge, I don't think it can be underestimated how big that was when RPI is such a big factor in the data. You don't want to give committee's reasons and data to not let you get a bid.
in any case, win the BWCT in Hawaii (for all sorts of other reasons) and it's a moot point, by Saturday night final, we'll know anyway all the AQs befoe that match starts
I mean they are almost a lock to win their conference tourney and get an auto bid. Set wise they went 16-0 in conference and went 48-4 in games. That is pretty dominate.
The problem is more likely to be Ball State. If they lose to say Loyola in the MIVA finals then they could still have a strong case to get an at large bid.
But honestly I think the ONLY way Long Beach State gets left out is if both UCLA and PSU lose in their conference tourneys.
To me the at large order would be.
2. Penn State
3. Long Beach State
4. Ball State
So as long as only 1 of UCLA/Penn State lose in their conference tourney we are fine. But yes I am voting for both Ball State and Penn State to win their conference tourneys which would remove even the possibility of LBSU getting left out.
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