1) we go 3-1 at a minimum, then we win the Big West and get #1 BWCT seed, (which is huge)
2) The NCAA uses RPI, which unfortunately is biased towards against the western teams (MPSF & BIg West), and HEAVILY FAVORS the MIVA this year, and there's no getting around that - can complain about it all we want, it's the NCAA
3) so....there's no 'lock' or guarantee that if we win out regular season, and don't win in Hawaii, we'll get in, just the way it is as we'd become dependent on UCLA (especially), Ball State, and Penn State teams winning their conference tournaments to avoid comparisons with them (with RPI). Certainly winning out to the BWCT finals would have LB in a very good position for an at-large, however. Penn State, Ball State, & UCLA would all have similar records to ours, and it'll come down to how much the committee would do a deep dive (not their strong point historically). It literally could come down to having to beat a Hawaii team we just beat twice, to beat them again in a final of the BWCT in Hawaii just to get into the NCAAs!

using RPI as a criteria (to be updated) and the top 11 (since Grand Canyon/Lewis are too close to call for top 10), comparision. Note RPI that the NCAA uses hugely favors the MIVA, with 4 of the top 11 teams in the MIVA, it's a big deal, but that's the criteria. Using a better statistical measure, Massey, would only have 2 of the top 11 from the MIVA

Ball State:
RPI Top 11: 6-1
Record vs. LB/UCLA/PSU: 0-0 (making it hard to compare)
Massey top 10: 2-1 (see the difference, but the committe won't because they can't)
Big Matches: Loyola (for the top seed and hosting MIVA), the the MIVA semis (a must win for BSU)

UCLA:
RPI top 11: 6-2
Reocrd vs. LB/PSU/BSU: 2-1 (Best of the group)
Massey Top 10: 6-1 (lewis loss drops out)
Big Matches. Pepperdine, then BYU, hardest end to the schedule, then the MPSF semis (maybe not a must win if they win the next 4)
other: Well, UCLA is hosting the NCAA, just saying, I'm hoping UCLA gets their AQ just for that reason alone.

PSU:
RPI Top 11: 3-3
Massey top 10: 3-3
record vs. UCLA/BSU/LB: 1-1
PSU didn't schedule any MIVA except Ohio State, which really would make a BSU-PSU/LB comparison difficult. PSU has the easiest path to an AQ, due to the huge drop-off from the Big West/MSPF to the MIVA then to the EIVA, there's no bones about it. Will make the at-large a lot simpler if they just win the AQ. Big match vs. NJIT - probably the best team out there to impeding PSU to a berth

LB:
RPI top 11: 8-2
vs. PSU/BSU/UCLA: 1-2
Massey top 10: 7-2
toughest RPI/Massey SOS, which should help, again depending on how deep the deep dive is. LB's record vs. quality opponents is where they would hope the NCAA looks.
The problem for LB is unlike the other 3, we have to win the AQ in Hawaii!, so all bets are off for LB, even if win out. Big Matches vs UCSD coming up to make the case and then also get a much needed road win,


so, if you take a all things into consideration (& the NCAA does NOT, since it relies heavily on RPI), ranking
UCLA
LB
PSU
BSU

is how I'd rank the teams, simply because Ball State is hanging their hat on 2 home wins over Hawaii out of conference. for all four teams, leaving it up to the committee is fraught with peril, although UCLA is going to get any benefit of the doubt since they are hosting this year, it's naive to think otherwise