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Posted by < nate on 10/27/2008, 10:22 pm
68.3.44.X
I mean the Nabity ratings; I don't think it's possible to deconstruct Nabity him and/or her self.
So I don't really believe in math. And I thought that Eric might be pulling some mumbo jumbo on us. So whatever crazy-ass algorithm he's using over there, I don't know, but here is his record so far this season:
20-4 picking the winner
4 "dead on" predictions
11 out of 24 predictions within 2 points of the actual score.
I wondered how actually amazing that may or may not be, so I crunched week 5-7 using a (presumably) much simpler heuristic: the team with a better record will win by 4, or if the teams have the same record, then the team with a better point diff at that time will win by 2. Using that, we could have predicted:
the same 20-4 correct picks record
1 exact pick
13 of 24 picks within the actual score
So maybe this season is just exceptionally predictable, but it seems that just going with the better record team has been sufficient thus far. That said, props to Nabity; that website is most certainly in my favorite places.
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