Posted by SierraSpartan
on 2/5/2009, 10:27 am
66.205.154.55
There was a thread below regarding the APR question, and whether or not SJSU should be out of the "effect" of His Literateness on the football team's APR.
The answer is, in short, that since the NCAA uses a four-year rolling average, rather than just a simple static average, SJSU will not be completely clear of the deleterious effect of His Literatness until roughly the 2013 season.
Here's why: The SJSU one-year APR numbers at the end of the Fitz Hill era were consistently in the middle to high 800's. During Tomey's tenure, they've been in the low-to-mid 900's (except for the first season when a lot of Hill's recruits left school).
However, because NCAA uses a rolling average (e.g. an average of the previous four averages) rather than a static average (based on snapshots taken of the previous four seasons), SJSU has been and will be stuck with the low APR numbers from the Fitz Hill era (and Tomey's first season is a part of that sorry legacy) until roughly the 2013 season, or EIGHT YEARS after the departure of His Literateness.
The APR is deliberately designed to make swift movement in the numbers difficult to achieve. Teams that are above the 925 line tend to stay there, while teams that are below the line find it very difficult to move up.
And when you start in the mid-800's, you end up with quite a difficult row to hoe.
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