Posted by SleepingHare on 1/25/2003, 1:37 am, in reply to "Inevitable Discussion: North Korea" As far as I can tell, Bush has no NK plan. He is preoccupied with Iraq and will do his best to avoid a showdown. If he does decide to act he will be hamstrung by a lack of support from the Chinese, South Koreans, and Russians. China has no clear plan, but they will not cut off aid. They exert the most influence over NK and enjoy the closest ties, and no doubt want to keep it that way. They also fear a NK collapse. Refugees are already streaming into China in large numbers and causing some instability in the border region. That problem could be expanded substantially. The possibility of the Koreas uniting and turning completely to the West could also be a fear. Extreme Japanese reaction may alter their position. SK is committed to their "Sunshine" policy and presumably will stick with it, even if the North continues to build up its arsenal. Long-range missiles are irrelevant to them. NK may already have a couple nukes and are close enough to use them. Seoul is very close to the border and NK artillery would tear it apart in a conventional fight. Protecting America from a possible NK nuclear attack down the road is not at the top of their list of priorities. They are already at risk if a conflict breaks out. Japan may cut off aid. More important are recent rumblings from Japanese politicians that openly are calling for the construction of nukes. Current NK missile technology is able to reach the west coast of Japan. The NK missile "tests" may have changed the previously fixed post-WWII Japanese thinking. I'd welcome the Japanese going nuclear and taking on more responsibility in East Asia, but for the Chinese it is a nightmare. A resurgent Japan would be a credible challenger to the regional hegemony China is trying to establish. The fear of a nuclear Japan may actually convince the Chinese to use their considerable pull on NK to defuse the situation. I don't see the Russians playing an important role in this conflict. They will want to keep up their good relations with NK and the US, so any extreme action in support of either side is unlikely. Where does all my thinking lead? The situation will not be resolved. NK will continue to build long-range missiles and nukes. The US will dither, SK and China will continue to support, and Russia will want to avoid getting too entangled. The wild card are hawkish Japanese politicians.
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My best estimation as of right now:
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