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Re: the koi hobby; post critical mass

Posted by JR on 1/26/2009, 6:55 pm, in reply to "Re: the koi hobby; post critical mass"
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Hey, Tony. I make my living following the boomers and there trends, so I'll share something, for what it's worth. This is the generation that, upon starting college, power started the higher educational system. When it came time to buying their first homes, this is the generation who created the condo boom. Then the single family housing boom, then the second baby boom, then the retirement planning boom. This is also the generation that will inherit more money from one generation to another since ---- well--- ever! And now we have the x'ers. Not enough funds to buy all the real estate and all the stocks that the boomers will be selling over the next several years ( most boomers, unfortunately, see their homes as their #1 retirement savings vehicle) And the X’ers are not likely to inherit the money from the boomer parents in time to catch this falling piano of land and equities. Unlike other cultures and other countries, the odds are high that X’er children will move away from their parents for job and career opportunities and will not live in the family home upon inheritance anyway. It has been suggested by many that X’ers and the generation after them, will be the first generations that live a ‘lesser’ life style than the previous generation. Until now, America has always seen each generation living a greater/same life style as the pervious. Just the money we are borrowing now could bury the X’ers and those behind them, in a 50% tax bracket ( it was 50% during the Carter administration) for most of their working lives. So life will be leaner and meaner for subsequent generations – and I don’t know if koi will find a place it that world? So the question is really are there enough X'ers to fill the gap left by the retiring boomers ? I'd think yes, if they have the real estate and are interested as much as their folks and older uncles. But on a global basis, high end koi has always required a world selection of wealthy individuals to support a system of farms and breeders that were willing to throw away 60-90% of their efforts for the lottery ticket type sale. In fact it has not been the 'same' wealthy individuals all along. It was first the wealthy Japanese that supported the system and the mindset of high class koi. Then the Koreans, then the Taiwanese, then the Chinese from Hong Kong and Singapore and then the Europeans and finally the Americans and maybe now the Chinese? All countries hit will great booms who turned to luxury items like koi as their personal outlets. So I guess the real question is , does the world have enough gen X'ers to replace the buying demand and interest of the worlds aging population? Don't know? But I can guess! Likely koi 'goes on' on a more modest level and for the very first time, we see koi quality leveling off at the current grades of accomplishment. The truth is, in any other commodities, when demand falls, so do prices. This then tends to give way to less production to restore the supply/demand curve in favor of pricing. The other route is to increase production and drop prices as margins fall and the item truly becomes a commodity in a volume business. Both these fundamental approaches is not good news for either the boomers or the X'ers. - One thing is for sure, these times will pass and at some point we will know how the koi survived through it all. - JR

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