Posted by Tim on 10/2/2009, 7:58 am, in reply to "First Quarter 2009 Survey Results"
173.70.133.12
The first quarter numbers are usually the lowest of the year, so I'm not surprised- although, year over year it is also down, albeit very slightly.
I think there was much anticipation of SCHIP in the first quarter and this could be a significant factor in this drop. I would expect a further drop in the second quarter, and then a return to a gradual increase as the tax impact is absorbed and forgotten.
In the long run, though, SCHIP will have no effect at all. According to Pool Theory, it takes several years to fill the pool of potential quitters, and SCHIP will have drained the pool very quickly. Thus, in years to come there will be a far lower quit rate, and the average rate will remain unchanged.
A current example of this is the Clunkers program- everyone even somewhat inclined to buy a car then did; now, for some time sales will be flat since the pool of potential buyers was drained. Ultimately, these strategies are impressive but useless, since they only increase the appearance of sales but average volume remains unchanged.
Message Thread:
« Back to thread