#1) the Beach SOS is just not all that good this year, while the growing the game matches are ok, it' s been a massive hit on Beach's SOS & KPI ratings this year. the only way to overcome that is to have a very good top 10 record.
#2) Penn State is one of those at-large 'play-in' type of matches. Penn State could be an at-large contender, they are top 10, a home loss would mean needed to go 3-1 vs Hawaii & Irvine in the Big West. A top 10 win, given the SOS, is needed.
Beach is 2-1 in top 10, with the Pepperdine win iffy. Beach will only have the IRvine road match & BWCT to get another top 20 road win.
so @ 2-1, with PSU, & 4 matches vs. Irvine/Hawaii, really need to go at least 3-2 in those, and 4-1 to be secure about an at-large should they lose in Hawaii. 5-3 is so-so, 6-2 would be very good. why PSU is such a big match
#3) Penn State has two AAs in MB Ezuno and their libero Ryan Merk. the two best liberos in the country, and maybe both Briggs & Merk competing for the spot in the 2028 Olympics.
#4) Lewis exposed some predictability to the Godbold BICs, Knipe has to simply adjust better even for some off the net sets
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